Assumption (strong PRP security). For all D with t≪2k: AdvEsprp(D)≈t/2k — i.e., no attack meaningfully better than exhaustive key search.
Best known attacks
Biclique key recovery (Bogdanov–Khovratovich–Rechberger 2011): 2126.1 for AES-128 — a factor ~4 below brute force; no practical impact.
Related-key attacks on AES-192/-256 (Biryukov–Khovratovich 2009) — outside the standard PRP model; avoided by proper key derivation.
Quantum: Grover halves effective key length (264 for AES-128) — AES-256 is the quantum-safe choice. 25 years of cryptanalysis with no single-key break.
Importance
The default cipher of the planet: TLS (AES-GCM), disk encryption (XTS), Wi-Fi WPA2/3, IPsec, cloud storage, hardware AES-NI in every CPU.
All provable security of modes (GCM, CBC, CTR, OCB; Bellare et al., Rogaway — thousands of citations) reduces mode security to exactly this PRP/SPRP assumption.